Editing Blog/2025-02-24/Lost Science (section)

== Inventions Awaiting Discovery ==

One idea to do so might be to consider influential inventions or discoveries for which the pre-requisites existed for a really long time. One such example from modern times is in canoe paddles.

=== Paddles ===

One example is the bent-shaft paddle, popularized by Eugene Jensen<ref name=paddle-jensen/>. Well within the technology of millennia but somehow only really adopted since the 1970s. Strictly bent ones with a sharp discontinuity are harder to do in ancient times, and one could argue that joinery and nailing make one less reliable. But curved carvings could be made quite reliably in the past. But there are arguments against:

* Increased complexity
* Lack of need (a 10% improvement is not noticeable in prehistory and only noticeable in racing)

So it was probably just dominated by the fact that paddling technique and physical characteristics of the paddler dominated this greater than the tool for much of human existence.

=== Stirrups ===

Another example, more historical, is the invention of the stirrup. South Indians used toe stirrups for ages, perhaps for stability. But the foot stirrup was invented among the Chinese for ages before it made its way to Europe through cultural diffusion. The [[wikipedia:Cataphract|cataphracts]] I was so fond of in Age of Empires were actually completely unstirruped and they packed quite a wallop. But you can imagine the increased efficacy of a cavalry that was foot-stirruped must have been quite desired.

The technology for stirrups existed for a long time and they "should have been" invented much earlier. Some argue that the absence of a rigid saddle tree (the base of a saddle) causes too much pressure<ref name=saddle-tree-pressure/> so it could conceivably be argued that stirrups absent the padded saddle would position the rider strictly in the same position each time causing the horse to be more tired than with the natural more random movement otherwise.

=== Conclusion ===

Many other such "inventions awaiting discovery" exist. A few of them are:

* wheeled luggage: casters existed for centuries before someone considered putting them on luggage and there were no materials innovations before they became popular (though there have been ones since)

* spectacles: lenses of required optical quality seem to have existed for centuries before they were thought to be used for people

And while looking around for the paddle thing I actually found this old thread from Dan Luu on Twitter that has some examples in software:

{{Tweet
| name = Dan Luu
| username = danluu
| text = Is there anyone who's exploring the question "why wasn't X invented earlier?" for various Xs, especially for modern Xs?

I've heard that I should read Graeber's new book, but that it won't really be what I'm looking for since it mostly focuses on older Xs.
| date = Dec 29, 2021
| ID = 1476260569040646144
| ref-name = Tweet_1476260569040646144
| block = true
}}

These days, in LLMs, "very stupid" things have a lot of success including the classic prompt-enhancer "let's think step-by-step" and sometimes they seem to qualify except for the fact that they're discovered quite quickly.

Nonetheless, these examples all have the problem that someone could conceivably make the argument that economic circumstances did not make the ideas worthwhile at the time and only a change in the requirements of the time (canoe racing, more travel) or a difficult unblocking invention (the miniature trigger) made the device valuable. So these could be another example of History From Below.