Editing Blog/2026-01-17/Citogenesis (section)

== An Example ==

Here is a sequence someone put together recently to claim that Norwegian recidivism is 20% by comparison with the US's 52%<ref name=no-recid-claim/>.

Let's start with the paper people like to claim for the 20% number:

{{cite journal
  | last = Denny
  | first = Meagan
  | title = Norway's Prison System: Investigating Recidivism and Reintegration
  | journal = Bridges: A Journal of Student Research
  | volume = 10
  | issue = 10
  | year = 2016
  | url = https://digitalcommons.coastal.edu/bridges/vol10/iss10/2
  | access-date = 2026-01-16
}}

If you actually read that paper, it sources Norway's recidivism rate from 

{{cite web
  | last = Deady
  | first = Carolyn W.
  | title = Incarceration and Recidivism: Lessons from Abroad
  | publisher = The Pell Center for International Relations and Public Policy at Salve Regina University
  | url = https://www.salve.edu/sites/default/files/filesfield/documents/Incarceration_and_Recidivism.pdf
  | url-status = dead
  | archive-url = https://www.antoniocasella.eu/nume/Deady_march2014.pdf
  | access-date = 2015-11-29
  | archive-date = 2014-03-01
}}

This one does not precisely state where its numbers are from, though two of the 'citations' state the 20% number:

# [https://time.com/archive/6597250/sentenced-to-serving-the-good-life-in-norway/ A news article in Time Magazine]
# [https://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2012/12/18/prison-could-be-productive/norways-prisons-are-doing-something-right An op-ed post in the NYT]

Neither of them point to their primary sources. Now, it is entirely conceivable that the comparison is valid. It could entirely be the case that Norway's recidivism rate on the same parameters as the US is much lower. In fact, I think that is likely to be the case.

However, this is not the science that shows that. Through a circuitous path, all that has happened is that opinion articles in magazines and newspapers have been laundered into 'papers' with citations formatted in the style of the field, thereby creating an impression of scientific rigor greater than simply Googling for one's pre-existing beliefs and selecting the respective opinion articles that support one's views to put into one's paper.

By comparison, [[wikipedia:Statistics Norway|SSB Norway]]'s [https://www.ssb.no/sosiale-forhold-og-kriminalitet/artikler-og-publikasjoner/aa-maale-gjentatt-kriminalitet-hvem-hva-og-naar report] contemporaneous with many of those references shows how the details matter. They illustrate that if you vary the parameters you can get anywhere between 10% and 55%. There is no comparison there, but it does illustrate how a blanket claim about 20% is not meaningful without more detail.