Blog/2024-09-14/Politics

I'm not American, so I can't really vote in US Politics, but it does affect my life quite a bit, both proximately and ultimately, since I live in the US and I'm married to an American and because my children (if everything goes well) will probably be American too.

Given all this, I try to pay attention. And about the biggest surprise for me this time has been that the Republicans are actually making most of the sense. Democratic Party policies seem patently insane - either blatantly populist vote buying or intentionally self-defeating out of idiocy.

There's two parts to the whole thing. Real policymaking and messaging. Let's talk messaging first since that matters.

Messaging

These are the stated beliefs that each party works on, and the policies they say they will enact.

Democrats

There are many things that they are absolutely right about:

• Gun control works to reduce homicide
• Abortion access is good for human rights
• IVF access is good for human rights
• Stem cell research will yield benefits
• Density bans are bad zoning policy
• Solar, wind, and other green energy is good
• More immigration is good and we should be making more people Americans

There are many things that they are wrong about. They believe wrongly that:

• The ideal society is maximally paternalistic
• All people who commit crime can be cured of their criminal tendencies
• It is best for society to allow violent criminals to be free
• The best way to help students is to forgive current student loans
• The best way to help people seeking homes is to give them more money
• Electric cars are bad because a person they dislike makes the best electric cars
• Nuclear energy is bad because of radioactive waste
• We must do whatever labour unions ask of us
• Anything that reduces the number of jobs in existing job classes is a bad thing
• Industrialization is inherently evil
• Every immigrant is desirable

Republicans

Things I agree with them on:

• Industrialization is a good idea for America now
• A sovereign nation needs to have a strong military to defend itself
• Expanding nuclear energy is a good idea
• Government bodies frequently engage in bureaucratic overreach
• The power in government bureaucracy allows corruption to fester
• Criminals should be prosecuted and imprisoned
• We should incentivize Americans having more children

Things I disagree with them on are these beliefs that they hold:

• Abortion should not be banned
• Immigration should be curtailed or severely restricted
• All the lunatic shit like Haitians eating cats or whatever
• That people should be jailed for harmless stuff
• That gay marriage should be illegal
• Their general distaste for foreigners like me
• IVF should be opposed

Forward Looking

The most striking thing about all this is that even though I have a very personal interest in the Democrats winning:

1. They will be good about green cards
2. They don't hate foreigners inherently

It seems like they're the wrong choice. It's a party that's inward-looking and focused very hard on accelerating the Decline of Empire, opposing things because the people say the wrong things, espousing populism that will restrict US prosperity, and generally attempting to mimic the things that have made Europe a moribund economy where people struggle to live prosperously.

It's far too obvious that juicing student loans is a giveaway to universities, that juicing homeowner purchases is a giveaway to landowners, that preventing progress doesn't stop the world from progressing. Only you.

The real tragedy is that there is a path to prosperity here, and the same people who bemoan the lack of it oppose growth. Donald Trump has done some insane stuff, and would be opposed to letting go of power, which is the biggest problem of all which makes it really painful to risk this because we risk everything if we won't allow peaceful transition of power. On the balance, I think he can't kill America in 4 y of power, so I think it's worth the crack.

Conclusion

Slow sure decline is slow decline, and that's better than a fast decline, but if I had to take my chances I'd rather the US go with fast N(-1,1) than with slow N(-0.2, -0.1). It's true that the latter is more easily reversible, but we've seen that almost never happens. Instead slow decline is only ever followed by fast decline. So fast something crazy is always worth it as an alternative since it might be fast advancement.

There's more to this but I have to go to bed. So that will have to do.