The Inscrutable Success Heuristic
From Rest of What I Know
The Inscrutable Success Heuristic refers to a situation where someone makes apparently stupid decisions which always pay off. If this happens often enough and the ideas seem particularly unlikely to work then it's useful to consider whether one is as smart as the person who seemingly keeps getting lucky. It comes from a tweet that looks like this:
Less intelligent people perceive more intelligent people as incredibly lucky. They always make inscrutably stupid decisions, unjustified by visible information, and somehow fate rewards them for this.
— Reconstructed from memory, paraphrased
